Moscow — The Kremlin is intensifying its confrontation with NATO as public support for the war in Ukraine falls to record lows, sharpening a propaganda campaign that casts Russia as the victim of Western aggression even as its forces probe European air defenses.
In recent weeks, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia have reported multiple airspace violations by Russian drones and jets, incidents NATO officials have described as part of a “pattern of increasingly irresponsible behavior.” Moscow, however, has countered with accusations that Europe is the aggressor, reviving a familiar narrative of encirclement and external threat.
Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Western leaders of “openly talking about preparations for an attack on our Kaliningrad region,” sidestepping the hypothetical framing of the remarks he cited. President Vladimir Putin echoed the warnings days later, pledging to meet any escalation from NATO “not with words, but with concrete military-technical measures.”
State-controlled media amplified the message. The news agency RIA Novosti ran the headline: “NATO is preparing to down Russian jets. Putin has accepted the challenge.” Talk-show host Olga Skabeyeva described European leaders as the “party of war,” while Vladimir Solovyov mocked NATO’s Article 4 consultations and floated the possibility of missile strikes. Pro-Kremlin bloggers, some with millions of followers, dismissed Western alarm as hysteria and portrayed Russia as advancing calmly despite Europe’s alleged panic.
Analysts say the campaign is directed less at NATO than at a domestic audience weary of a costly conflict. Now nearing its fourth year, the war is set to outlast the Soviet Union’s struggle against Nazi Germany — a symbolic marker that underscores rising discontent. The Finance Ministry’s recent plan to raise value-added tax has further strained households already grappling with the economic fallout.
Polling reflects that fatigue. The independent Levada Center reported this month that two-thirds of Russians favor peace talks, the highest level since the invasion began in 2022. Those backing open-ended military action have fallen to their lowest point on record.
“Putin’s regime cannot exist without confrontation,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based analyst. “Propaganda is being used for psychological mobilization — to convince people they are defending Russia against the entire West.”
Despite signs of waning public patience, the Kremlin shows no sign of scaling back its military campaign. Instead, it is leaning on external confrontation abroad and tightening repression at home — a dual strategy aimed at sustaining a war that many Russians increasingly want to see end.
